Does voter registration in standing communal electoral registers affect the results of communal executive elections?

Abstract

_{The article is an example of exploratory analysis substantiated by statements made by local actors in selected communes all over Poland, suggesting that the holders of communal executive offices may use voter registration on electoral registers to enhance their chances of re-election. Hence, the following research question was formulated: Does voter registration on communal electoral registers affect the results of direct communal executive elections? In order to answer this question, quantitative databases were explored, taking into consideration the multi-aspect properties of candidates and communes. The verification was performed using linear, logistic and spatial regression as well as regression discontinuity design (RDD). Multiway analysis allows us to find a clear-cut answer to the above-mentioned question. The newly registered voters do not, in fact, improve the winning chances of candidates running for re-election and do not increase their electoral support. They slightly improve the position of pretenders, but this advantage is the product of structural determinants, not intentional registration on electoral registers made in order to vote for a particular candidate. It is possible that in some communes and elections the registrations did contribute to the final result of the electoral competition, but if so, these cases are so rare and extreme that they could not be detected in the variables’ validation tests within the RDD. Although RDD demonstrates some manipulations of electoral results, the source of these manipulations is the voter registration on communal electoral registers.}