Credit Default Swap Premia vs. the Polish Stock Market in the Period 2011-2016

Abstract

This article proposes a simple approach to explain credit default swap premia and stock market prices in Poland. Credit Default Swap is an innovative financial instrument designed to transfer risk. Sovereign CDS premia measure investment risk.

The aim of the article is to compare the premia of five-year Polish sovereign CDS and the Polish stock market indices – the WIG (Warsaw Stock Exchange Index) and the NCI (NewConnect Index). The key aim of the study is to calculate the Pearson correlation coefficient of premia with indices in the period 2011-2016. According to the theory, the CDS premia were strongly negatively correlated with the main index of the Polish stock market. When the premia increase, the WIG decreases simultaneously, and vice versa. However, in the case of CDS premia and the NCI, a strong positive correlation was documented. When the premia increase, the same is true for the NC index. The relationship can be explained by the presence of low risk-averse investors on the NewConnect market.