The effectiveness of the Federal Reserve System’s monetary policy in the years 1962–2018

Abstract

Background: The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System affects the term structure of nominal interest rates as well as other asset prices, and thus influences aggregate demand and price levels through these effects. This complex process is known as the monetary transmission mechanism and the transmission process of monetary impulses changes over time. The strength of this impact is a staple subject of economic research.

Research purpose: The aim of the article is to assess the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve System’s monetary policy transmission mechanism over the period 1962–2018. In particular, the scale and timing of the interest rate pass-through to economic activity have been examined.

Methods: Econometric methods (the vector autoregression model) have been used. The empirical analysis was carried out based on U.S. economic statistics for the years 1962–2018, which were taken from the FRED and BEA Databases.

Conclusions: Empirical findings reveal that the way in which the Federal Reserve System’s monetary policy influenced the U.S. economy was diversified at particular time intervals. The results imply that the effectiveness of the U.S. central bank’s interest rate policy has been decreasing since the mid-1980s. Firstly, in the period 1962–1983, the real GDP growth rate and the inflation rate were more sensitive to changes in the federal funds rate than in the period 1984–2018. Secondly, in the period 1962–1983, the effective federal funds rate had an almost threefold greater impact on economic activity and price processes. Thirdly, until the mid-1980s, the effects of monetary impulses were felt longer in the American economy than in the later period. What is more, there is no evidence to suggest that the period of historically low interest rates caused a decline in the effectiveness of the transmission of monetary policy impulses.